[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190618
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE WAS PUT ON THE SURFACE
MAP ANALYSIS ALLOW 26W/27W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUDS
ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N54W 11N56W 4N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE RIDGE RUNS FROM N ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-COLOMBIA
GUAJIRA PENINSULA FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS...MUCH MORE SUBTLE
RIGHT NOW. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS...FROM 31N60W TO A
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N62W...TO 26N68W AND 26N72W.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W
SOUTH OF 15N. THIS WAVE HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING UP WELL ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE OR INFRARED...FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS...NOT NEAR ANY AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST FROM 11N/12N ALONG 15W...TO 7N25W...FROM
6N30W TO 6N43W TO 9N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 9W
AND 18W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL REMAINS FROM WEST TEXAS TO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO TO 23N109W JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RUNNING FROM NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO FLORIDA FOR ALL OF LAST WEEK. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH NOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 700 NM EAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE
FROM A 1021 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
29N72W...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 23N TO 24N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA
PUSHING THE HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS
COVERED BY A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N62W TO 14N68W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA
AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOW
IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WEAKENING TROUGH...SPREADING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N82W
TO JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTH OF 15N ALONG
82W/83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 24N70W TO 20N70W.
A REMNANT OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-COLOMBIA GUAJIRA PENINSULA
FROM 24 HOURS AGO REMAINS...MUCH MORE SUBTLE RIGHT NOW.
A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS...FROM 31N60W TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N62W...TO 26N68W AND 26N72W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STARTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA JUST NORTH
OF GUYANA/SURINAME AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 22N50W BEYOND
32N43W. A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 31N27W TO 21N31W TO
10N36W.

$$
MT




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