[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE 15N51W 8N53W 2N55W MOVING WEST
15 KT.  THIS IS A WELL DEFINED BROAD WAVE APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 45W-48W...AND FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 55W-60W.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 91W/92W.  THIS IS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE WITH CONVECTION PREDOMINATELY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N40W 8N54W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W.  HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.
10-20 KT SELY TO SLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  ON SHORE FLOW
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE NE GULF FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 85W-91W.
FURTHER S...AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER GUATEMALA...S MEXICO...AND THE SRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 94W-96W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 32N92W.   ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.   EXPECT...ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA TO SW
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE AREA.  SEE ABOVE.  A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH 20 KT TRADEWINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ITCZ ALONG
9N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 14N52W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W.  EXPECT NRN SOUTH
AMERICA CENTRAL TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE ITCZ ALONG 9N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W.  A 1016
MB LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N70W.  A TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 32N58W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 59W-63W.  A
1023 MB HIGH WITH FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N47W MOVING E.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W.  ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 15N51W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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