[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOT SHOWN UP WELL
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE OR INFRARED...FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS...NOT NEAR ANY AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 88W/89W. ONE AREA OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF
OF HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N10W IN NORTHERN LIBERIA...THROUGH SIERRA LEONE TO 7N20W
7N30W AND 7N40W TO 8N47W...7N51W 7N60W. ONE SMALL AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 10W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 35W AND
42W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RUNNING FROM
NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO FLORIDA
FOR ALL OF LAST WEEK. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE PATTERN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE
BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KT AT 18/0600 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN
MEXICO A LITTLE BIT WEST OF LOS MOCHIS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 19N114W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W
UNDER THE RIDGE. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA EAST OF 62W/63W WITH
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THERE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS COVERED BY
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W TO
14N68W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THERE. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS TAKEN PLACE
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT NOTHING IS HAPPENING NOW...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS FROM LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF
18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN U.S.A. DURING
THE LAST WEEK NOW PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 26N70W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 20N72W. THE DEEP LAYER FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 27N65W
TO 25N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N70W 27N66W 30N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM
13N49W TO 22N54W BEYOND 32N48W. THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N46W. A LARGE
SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 17N27W JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 25N26W
BEYOND 32N23W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...FROM 16N TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N59W-TO-20N72W TROUGH...IS AROUND
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N52W.

$$
MT


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