[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERSFROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

A SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL
ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 5N87W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS...AND
NOW REMAIN ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N13W IN GUINEA TO 7N23W 7N33W TO 7N46W...8N50W TO 7N59W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
6N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 5N24W 3N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RUNNING
FROM NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TO
FLORIDA FOR ALL OF LAST WEEK. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING SHOWERS ARE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...WITH MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KT WIND
OBSERVATIONS AT 18/0000 UTC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN MEXICO IN BETWEEN CIUDAD
OBREGON TO THE NORTH AND LOS MOCHIS TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N113W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
UNDER THE RIDGE. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 24N AND NORTH OF 25N
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA WITH MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THERE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 74W...THANKS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. THE AREA EAST OF 74W IS
COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
20N62W TO 14N68W TO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA AND
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THERE. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TOOK PLACE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT NOTHING IS HAPPENING
NOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS FROM LOW CLOUDS...
MAINLY SOUTH OF 18N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE EASTERN U.S.A. DURING
THE LAST WEEK NOW PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 20N73W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N60W 27N64W 24N70W
24N75W 25N80W HAS BEEN BREAKING UP AND THINNING OUT WITH TIME
DURING THE LAST 5 HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 29N68W TO 26N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 11N47W TO 22N50W BEYOND 34N47W.
THIS RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N46W. A LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N27W JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 26N26W BEYOND 32N24W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BERMUDA-TO-20N73W
TROUGH...IS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N47W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net