[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
40W-46W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 15N MOVING
W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE
SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W TO 20N85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 6N33W 8N46W 7N60W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-40W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 46W-60W. THE
E TROPICAL ATLC IS MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE WITH A VERY THIN
LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 5N20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
6N11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SPREADING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/
MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF
DRY AGAIN TONIGHT. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N87W ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS DRIFTING
NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO
SUPPLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER W CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS W OF 80W. AN UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE
ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS DOMINATED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N63W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
NEAR 15N66W TO 12N76W. THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER
W TO NEAR 83W COUPLED WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT
DOMINATE THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN GIVING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 84W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S INTO THE REGION N OF
26N W OF 70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W SW TO A
1016 MB LOW JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING TO
JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N79W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N60W GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE
FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 43N76W NE TO 30N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N61W TO THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR
STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N44W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NE ATLC CONTINUES TO PUSH S TO 22N E OF 33W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W JUST
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N25W. THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 65W IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY UPPER AIR WITH A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NE OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 27N55W AND A WEAKENING 1023 MB HIGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N34W THUS KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC UNDER
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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