[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN
35W-44W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE
SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N22W 8N40W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
45W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 27W-35W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 52W-67W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SPREADING HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI
COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY AGAIN
TONIGHT. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N86W TO ACROSS EXTREME S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS BEGINNING
TO MOVE NW AND SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHORTWAVE IS ENHANCING THE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE S OF 27N E OF 83W AND S OF
24N FROM 83W-89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO
SUPPLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 83W. AN
UPPER RIDGE NOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN
REMAINS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO 74W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS AN AREA OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NW ATLC DIPS S INTO THE REGION N OF 27N W OF 70W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N72W SW TO A 1016 MB LOW OVER THE
NE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N64W
GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N78W NE
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 30N71W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE ATLC YESTERDAY HAS BECOME DIVIDED AS THE UPPER LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BECOME CUT-OFF. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N57W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...
THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 23N44W...AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 23N E OF 33W. ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NE ATLC UPPER TROUGH IS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N15W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N32W.
THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 65W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY
UPPER AIR WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W
WITH A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 25N61W AND A
1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N48W THUS KEEPING MOST
OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net