[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS WELL DEFINED WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 37W-44W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE
SIGNATURE IS DISCERNIBLE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
THUS MASKING ANY LOW LEVEL SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 7N40W 5N54W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
27W-35W...FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 37W-44W...AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
44W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE
TROUGH IS DRIFTING W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON COMPOSITE
RADAR E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA
...THE SE GULF...AND S FLORIDA MOSTLY S OF 26N.  SURFACE WINDS
OVER THE NE GULF...N OF 26N AND E OF 90W...ARE PREDOMINATELY
FROM THE E AT 10 KT WITH FAIR WEATHER.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO...W OF 90W... ARE FROM THE SE AT 10 KT WITH
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 28N-35N BETWEEN 94W-100W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W...THUS
THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N HAS MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL AND SE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE WESTERN MOST
TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
SEE ABOVE.  THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS AN AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 82W-87W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NLY FLOW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N62W.  CYCLONIC FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE WRN
ATLANTIC MOVING NE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 70W-79W...AND FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 66W-70W.  NASSAU AND FREEPORT HAVE EACH REPORTED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A 1024 MB HIGH WITH FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W.  A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 28N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N48W.  ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ERN ATLANTIC NEAR 17N31W.

$$
FORMOSA




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