[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

EASTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR SO NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS
DISCERNIBLE. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WESTERN MOST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 13N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THUS MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N26W 7N41W 5N54W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COVERING THE GULF W OF 85W
LEAVING MUCH OF THE GULF DRY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM OVER
CUBA TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO N OF 18N FROM 75W-85W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 80W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NE ACROSS CUBA/HISPANIOLA. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 74W. THIS AREA IS FREE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER
THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 60W TO OVER
THE E US. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW ATLC GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150/180 NM
OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N77W NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
28N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AFRICA
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N43W THEN SW TO
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS A RATHER BENIGN FEATURE AS IT IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY UPPER AIR. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA E OF 70W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N46W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDING FROM
31N23W TO 28N38W BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE BROAD HIGH IS
KEEPING MOST OF THE ATLC UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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