[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150918 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

CORRECTION FROM 805 AM EDT TO 205 AM EDT
CORRECTION FROM THU JUN 14 TO FRI JUN 15

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 16N ALONG
63W/64W MOVING WEST 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS CONNECTED TO THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

A CARIBBEAN SEA VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
71W/72W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
73W AND 76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

A CENTRAL AMERICA/EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
91W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SPANS CENTRAL
AMERICA KEEPING SHOWERS ACTIVE NORTH OF 13N. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA/SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER NEAR 10N12W TO 6N17W 7N25W
7N31W 5N40W 3N49W INTO EASTERN SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 7W AND 40W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN
40W AND THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
THE AREA IS DIVIDED INTO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
WEST OF 90W...AND CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF 90W. DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...STILL WITH THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ITS 40N67W CYCLONIC CENTER ORIGINS.
AFTERNOON RAINS HAVE PREVAILED IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE LAST
THREE DAYS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT WAS HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST
24 HOURS AGO HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA OF WESTERN COASTAL CUBA.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER STARTED ITS LIFE 4 OR 5 DAYS AGO IN THE
SAME WESTERN COASTAL CUBA AREA. IT HAS MADE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
CIRCUIT DURING THOSE 4 TO 5 DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN THE U.S.A. GOES FROM KANSAS TO OKLAHOMA TO TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN WESTERN COASTAL
CUBA...AFTER HAVING STARED THERE 4 TO 5 DAYS AGO...MAKING THE
CIRCUIT TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW TO
WESTERN CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W THANKS TO THE
CONTINUED DIGGING OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN WORKING
ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY DURING AT LEAST THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ALONG A NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES AND THE WESTERN
COASTAL CUBA WATER VAPOR LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ARE ADDING TO
THE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY SITUATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N WEST
OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH GOES FROM
A 25N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N57W TO 13N67W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 360 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STREAMS
OVER THE TOP OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W IS IN AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

$$
MT




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