[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT.  WAVE
IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 24 HOURS AGO. ANY CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. DENSE OVERCAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 62W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME LIGHT
AFRICAN DUST THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 60W-65W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS ALONG 71W S
OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 5N38W 5N54W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 10N E OF 6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 7W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE
GULF ALONG 24N84W TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO OVER E TEXAS. DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER
JET ARE GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM
90W-95W. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FLORIDA...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY N OF 15N W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND TO
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
INDUCED BY SEVERAL FACTORS. THE MOST PERSISTENT HAS BEEN
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A SMALL UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N88W THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR
18N87W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL
MID/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA BUT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. E OF 80W IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W AND IS PROVIDING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W
TO E OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N60W. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA NEAR 29N71W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. NARROWING UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING NE FROM
HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLC NEAR 28N20W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 22N40W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR 13N65W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N39W. THIS HIGH IS AIDING IN THE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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