[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE NOW
AS IT WAS TWO TO THREE DAYS AGO...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
AROUND IT CYCLONICALLY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION IN TWO AREAS CLOUDS/SHOWERS...FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W IN VENEZUELA.

A CENTRAL AMERICA/EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
87W/88W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER
THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W MAINLY IN THE OCEAN BUT STILL REACHING
PARTS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W
AND 86W. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION AND WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES FROM HONDURAS AT 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AT
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AT CUBA AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/GUINEA-BISSAU BORDER NEAR 12N14W TO 8N20W TO
6N26W 4N36W 9N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO
10N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN HELPING TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 93W. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR
20N91W PRACTICALLY RIGHT AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
COAST. THE SHOWERS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
28N72W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N66W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FLAT AND WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE EAST
AND REACHES GRENADA AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF
15N...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA
FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W
AND 88W MAINLY IN THE OCEAN BUT STILL REACHING PARTS OF WESTERN
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.
WEAKENING PRECIPITATION AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM
HONDURAS AT 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AT CUBA AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N
WEST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW AROUND THE 40N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N69W 25N65W
BEYOND 30N60W. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A 23N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 17N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GRENADA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THIS WHOLE...EAST OF THE 21N70W 30N63W
PRECIPITATION...TO AFRICA. A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net