[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ONE CELL OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N63W IN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW IN VENEZUELA WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM
RADIUS OF 8N68W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 15N...
FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM
PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN CENTRAL HONDURAS...
AND WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W INLAND TO GUATEMALA
NEAR 15N90W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SENEGAL NEAR 13N16W TO 9N21W...8N24W 5N35W 5N42W 9N55W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 52W
AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 8W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN HELPING TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
LAST FEW DAYS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 93W. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS NEAR
20N91W PRACTICALLY RIGHT AT THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
COAST. THE SHOWERS RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
29N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N69W.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THEN IT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE EAST
AND REACHES GRENADA AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE NORTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 78W. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS MUCH MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO.   AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...ALONG 85W/86W SOUTH OF 15N...FROM
HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM
PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...IN CENTRAL HONDURAS...
AND WITHIN 30 TO 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N86W INLAND TO GUATEMALA
NEAR 15N90W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 24N
WEST OF 70W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW AROUND THE 40N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N70W 25N66W
30N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 23N40W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
17N56W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR GRENADA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS WHOLE...EAST OF THE
21N70W 30N63W PRECIPITATION...TO AFRICA. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N37W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.

$$
MT


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