[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W/17W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS TRACKED ACCORDING TO
RAWINSONDE DATA IN BAMAKO. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 19N
BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN SOUTHERN GUYANA FROM ITS BORDER WITH BRAZIL TO 4N.

ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS LINEAR TO THE EAST OF
THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 17N.
MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOVING FROM
COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

...THE ITCZ...

10N17W 5N26W 5N40W 8N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
WESTERN CUBA 48 HOURS AGO NOW IS OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N92W...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT LEAST 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
180 NM AROUND THIS 21N92W CYCLONIC CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N NOW...APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THANKS TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.
THE PARENT CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 40N67W CENTER
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDED FROM
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI
TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AT 28N...TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N79W TO 28N70W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE CELL WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE TROUGH THERE FROM 27N TO 29N
BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THIS COVERS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...
AND THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...
ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 17N. MORE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
IN THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. REMEMBER THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER...THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ALSO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND
82W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF
24N...WEST OF A 21N67W 27N62W BEYOND 32N55W RIDGE. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND THE 40N67W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER THE 32N55W 21N67W
RIDGE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N
BETWEEN 53W AND 55W...FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...AND
FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A 24N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N46W.
NO SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 24N41W TO
19N46W TROUGH.

$$
MT




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