[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND NOW IT IS EASILY SPOTTED ON THE EARLIEST
VISIBLE IMAGES.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
SOME OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION JUST EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS LINEAR IN SHAPE...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W SOUTH OF 17N...FROM GUATEMALA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. 82W/83W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N12W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 6N14W 7N20W 4N30W 4N35W 6N40W...
6N43W 3N47W 3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8.5N BETWEEN 41W AND 54W...FROM 1N TO
5N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA COAST
AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA....AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N
WEST OF 60W...
A DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN EASTERN ARIZONA IS LEADING TO THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM MEXICO NEAR 24N107W
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA
24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO 23N88W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...TO NORTHERLY WEST OF 90W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN TURN NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
FEATURE ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND A 40N62W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS STEERING THE WIND FLOW ALL THE
WAY TO 26N WEST OF 60W. THE 40N62W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N66W TO 28N74W AND BEYOND 30N80W.
A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N86W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N91W 20N92W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE AREA OF NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH OF THE EASTERN HONDURAS
COAST WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND
82W...SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND NORTH OF 18N75W
20N79W 20N87W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MOVING ONSHORE TO
CUBA...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N60W 24N62W 20N71W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 55W WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 40N62W
CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N45W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 18N47W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 22N45W
18N47W TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N41W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE
AFRICA COAST AND 60W.

$$
MT


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