[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 25 TO 30 KT. THE WAVE SHOWED UP WELL IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AND NOW IT IS EASILY SPOTTED ON THE EARLIEST
VISIBLE IMAGES.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST OF 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ISOLATED
MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W ARE
BEING AUGMENTED OR ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THIS WAVE
IS ENHANCING ANY PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N TO 19N WEST OF 80W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN
CUBA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AREA MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 13N15W IN SENEGAL TO 7N27W 4N35W 3N44W 4N46W TO 3N52W NEAR
THE BRAZIL/FRENCH GUIANA BORDER. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED FROM THE AFRICA COAST AND IT REMAINS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...
AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 34W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N
WEST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W
TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO NEAR 15N94W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 500 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF
14N WEST OF 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF 12N WEST OF 76W...IN BETWEEN THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE AND
THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE...AND NEAR THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W UNDER THE RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM
CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 17N109W TO 24N107W BEYOND 30N100W IN
TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF AND AWAY
FROM THE CUBA CYCLONIC CENTER...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THAT
SAME CYCLONIC FLOW IN SOME WAY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE THAT IS
IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN CUBA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS NEAR 41N62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SAID CYCLONIC CENTER TO
33N66W 29N73W AND 28N75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF 36N. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 31N72W.
A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N60W 30N57W BEYOND 32N55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
25N35W AND 23N40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N25W 23N40W TROUGH.

$$
MT


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