[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101834
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
23W/24W S OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 25 KT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS
EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N23.5W.   UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN
DUST...AND A FAST MOVEMENT WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.   DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS BASICALLY OVER TWO AREAS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W...AND FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 22W-26W.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 10N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK SINCE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW VERY MUCH TURNING.  A SECONDARY SURGE OF
TROPICAL CLOUDS AND CONVECTION DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE IS
FURTHER BACK ALONG 62W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
DEPICT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE AREA.  THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORMAL BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 75W-78W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 5N30W 4N50W 7N60W.  EXCEPT AS
NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE ...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 43W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION IS OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  FRONTAL LOCATION IS MOSTLY BASES ON SURFACE
WIND SHIFTS.  A 1016 MB HIGH IS IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N91W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
TEXAS NEAR 30N101W.  NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR
22N83W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO ADVECT OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.   LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN
WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.  WRN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DAY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 80W...AND
LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1026 MB HIGH IS THE DOMINATE SURFACE
FEATURE NEAR 28N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-32N BETWEEN
15W-55W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST IN THE SRN BAHAMAS AND
ADJACENT WATERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 67W-76W.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA.
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM8N-22N E OF 40W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W.  A VERY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N11W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA




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