[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 415 NM SSE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ALONG 21W S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING JUST N OF DUE
WEST NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED FOR EARLY JUNE. A SFC
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS NOT
ON ITS SIDE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 21W-24W...AND S OF THE LOW FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
19W-25W.

A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 10N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS FAR FROM OBVIOUS IN OBS OR SAT
IMAGES...THEREFORE THE PSN REMAINS BASED ON CONTINUITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-44W...BUT THIS
APPEARS TO BE NORMAL ITCZ ACTIVITY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS PSN IS A BIT W OF WHERE CONTINUITY WOULD HAVE
TAKEN IT. HAVE OPTED FOR THE SLIGHT RELOCATION DUE TO THE RECENT
VEERING WIND AND PRESSURE TENDENCY DROP AT BUOY 42059...WHICH
SUGGESTS THE WAVE HAS PASSED. OVERALL THOUGH THE WAVE IS LESS
DEFINED THAN IT WAS WHEN IT PASSED THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY
SAT. A WWD MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS STILL NOTED OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 64W-68W...BUT MINIMAL SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN PORTION OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 76W/77W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS IN THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING
IN THE VICINITY BUT THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORMAL
BACKGROUND FLOW AROUND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-80W...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
WRN CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT
WATERS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 5N30W 3N47W 3N45W 7N58W.
EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE
...SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
27W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND WITHIN 30NM W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA EARLIER HAVE
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER
WRN CUBA...BUT HAVE ALSO GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH A 1017 MB SFC
HIGH 28N92W AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH OVER
S MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. SFC WINDS ARE MOSTLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF...THOUGH LAST NIGHTS QUIKSCAT PASS AT
10/0040 UTC SHOWED SOME ACCELERATION OF THE NE FLOW AROUND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH A SMALL ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE
ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N E OF 93W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH MON AROUND WEAK RIDGING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. LIGHTNING DATA
DEPICTS NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH THE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST
S OF JAMAICA...AND THIS HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH N OVERNIGHT AROUND
THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA. A BIT TAMER TRADE WIND REGIME
DOMINATES THE ERN CARIBBEAN THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SUBTLE LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE NOTED. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SFC GRADIENT IS
FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE BASIN WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS. WRN CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 76W...AND LOWER THAN NORMAL SFC PRESSURES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST IN THE SRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS BUT HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONT EXTENDING E FROM
SOUTH CAROLINA IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 71W-77W. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE RULES THE WRN ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY WEEK. FARTHER NE...A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW PRES AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 38N62W. THIS SYSTEM WAS THE
SUPPORT FOR THE NOW DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
32N51W 28N53W.

MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB CENTER NEAR
27N33W RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 39W TO 12N AND A SPRAWLING RIDGE
COVERING THE E ATLC WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER MAURITANIA.
THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS.

$$
WILLIS




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