[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 12N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE MOVED OFF AFRICA LATE ON JUNE 4/EARLY JUNE
5. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT SINCE THEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
RECENT SOUNDING FROM CAYENNE IN THE FRENCH GUIANA AT 07/2300 UTC
REVEALED SOME VEERING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH SUGGESTS THE
WAVE HAS PASSED THIS LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY N OF THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 50W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH VENEZUELA AND THE SE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 63/64W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE
SHOWED A CLASSIC SIGNATURE ON THE TRINIDAD RAOBS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
OVER VENEZUELA WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR
CLUSTERS ARE E OF THE AXIS...JUST N OF BARBADOS AND E OF ST.
LUCIA FROM 13.5N-14.5N BETWEEN 58W-61W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE ABC ISLANDS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA/COSTA RICA
BORDER...AND THE E PACIFIC ALONG 82W/83W S OF 12N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 30NM OF THE AXIS N OF 10N. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE JUST N OF PANAMA BUT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE TIED TO THE WAVE GIVEN THE NE SHEAR OVER THE AREA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 6N28W 5N40W 7N60W. BESIDES FOR
CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NUMEROUS MODERATE
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO WITHIN 60NM MAINLY S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 10W-15W...AND WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-22W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE PUSHING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE FEATURE HOLDS TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ADDING TO THE MAP. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE ATLC DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT.
THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SELY WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN...STRONGEST WRN PORTION WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE ERN PORTION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS S OF 28N E OF 88W. MUCH DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR IS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER THE NW GULF...N OF 25N W
OF 88W. DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 25N DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EPAC
AND CONVECTION OVER MEXICO. SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE STRONGEST
IN THE WRN GULF THROUGH FRI EVENING...RELAXING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THIS MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING IS
JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA. LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS NUMEROUS
TSTMS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO NEAR HAITI
AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
WEATHER DESCRIBED ABOVE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT. UPPER
FLOW IS MOSTLY ANTICYCLONIC AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E
ALONG 17N. THE EXCEPTION IS SW FLOW IN THE FAR SE PORTION AROUND
TROUGHING FROM THE ATLC. UPPER CONFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING VERY
DRY/STABLE AIR IN THE S CARIB FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 65W-82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW
JUST OFFSHORE N FLORIDA AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 75W. A COLD
FRONT IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N56W 29N64W 30N70W.
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW ABOUT 475NM SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA. SFC HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR
33N71W...WILL GRADUALLY TAKE OVER THE SFC PATTERN OVER THE WRN
ATLC INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT INVERTED TROUGHING FORMING S OF THE HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR THE WRN BAHAMAS AND MOVING W ACROSS SRN
FLORIDA. THIS IS A BYPRODUCT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF
NFL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SSW INTO SAT. MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 39N40W. OVERALL THOUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
ATLC IS EXPERIENCING A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AT BEST. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N45W. THIS IS MOSTLY JUST GENERATING
PATCHES OF CIRRUS...BUT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 32N14W 25N25W. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS N OF THE AREA.

$$
WILLIS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net