[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
CLOUDS.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN
23W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS DEPICTS THE WAVE WELL.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 49W-54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
62/63W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THIS WAVE HAVE SOME
DISTINCTIVE LOW LEVEL TURNING...EASILY SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY SPREAD MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SRN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  PRESENTLY
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
54W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA...AND THE
E PACIFIC ALONG 81W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
78W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 6N28W 4N35W 6N50W 6N56W.
BESIDES FOR CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE STILL INLAND OVER THE CONTINENT.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY SELY 15-20 KT.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS N OF 25N E OF 89W.  DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW HAS ENHANCED THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.   EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
MOVE TO S FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THUNDERSTORMS...
RAIN...AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
INLAND OVER THE NE GULF STATES DUE TO SLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA
E OF 80W.  SELY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.  NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DEPICTED IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER CUBA DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 62W/63W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
FLORIDA...THE NRN BAHAMAS...AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 67W-80W MAINLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N
FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT IS ALSO DIPPING S INTO THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N59W 30N63W 30N70W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N43W.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS...AND THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N14W 27N20W 25N30W
26N36W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE
W ATLANTIC.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W.  A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N25W.

$$
FORMOSA



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