[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 22W-35W. THIS MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE FURTHER E. LOOKING BACK AT SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS IT
APPEARS AS IF THERE WERE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES THAT MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA DURING JUNE 3-4. THE FIRST MAY ACTUALLY BE
CLOSER TO 48W WHILE THE SECOND BACK NEAR 30W. REGARDLESS...THE
SIGNAL IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND WILL BE REEVALUATED DURING THE DAY
SHIFT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO
AFFECT TRINIDAD AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT PRESSURE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH HELPED IN
ITS PLACEMENT. THE WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL VIA SATELLITE DERIVED
850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TROUGH FROM THE ATLC TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 57W-62W. THIS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WRN COLOMBIA AND SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE
WAVE HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND ITS POSITION IS MOSTLY
BASED ON PERSISTENCE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N20W 6N30W 5N45W 9N56W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 7W-14W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
44W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 210NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE CONVECTION IN THE ERN GULF HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
LEFTOVER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE WRN ATLC. DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN PLACE IN THE WRN
GULF W OF 91W. THE W PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
THE GULF AND LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS...STRONGEST WRN PORTION WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD W OVER THE
NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE
FLARED UP AGAIN IN THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. UPPER FLOW IS ANTICYCLONIC OVER MOST OF THE
BASIN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MODERATELY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW
PORTION...WHERE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF EXISTS. MOISTURE
IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES
DOMINATE THE BASIN...BENDING MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE NE OF THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE
CARRYING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ISOLATED SHOWERS
WWD ACROSS THE BASIN...MOST CONCENTRATED S OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE REGION.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS OCCUPYING
THE WRN ATLC AREA BETWEEN CUBA AND BERMUDA. TSTM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED A BIT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SCATTERED TSTMS STILL EXIST
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 74W-77W. A
MID TO UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N51W. THIS MAY
BE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
50W-56W...AND IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E
OF TRINIDAD AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND
MUCH OF THE E ATLC WATERS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS S OF THE 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 39N42W. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N16W
25N27W...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

$$
WILLIS







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net