[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THERE
IS NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
23W-35W. THIS SEEMS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE REGION AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY
LINEAR BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W WHICH IS MAKING WAVE TRACKING
DIFFICULT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  THERE IS SOME SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN
THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS...ALSO DEPICTED
BY SATELLITE DERIVED 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY ALONG THE N PORTION OF
THE WAVE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 51-61W...DUE TO THE INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
ALONG 76W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A LOOP OF A DAYS WORTH
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A E TO W SURGE OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING OVER COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 3N40W 2N52W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER AFRICA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 5W-12W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
12W-17W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 86W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGERING
IN THE SE GULF ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CLIPPING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
MUCH TAMER CONDITIONS EXIST W OF 92W WITH DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR
ALOFT IN PLACE. THE W PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
THE GULF AND LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS...STRONGEST WRN PORTION
WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN. THE MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT WAS OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA EARLIER
HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED. LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS JUST A COUPLE
LINGERING TSTMS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 79W-82W NOW. UPPER FLOW IS
ANTICYCLONIC OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
18N87W. MODERATELY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR NW PORTION...WHERE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF EXISTS.
MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN...BENDING MORE
SE IN THE NW PORTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE NE
OF THE AREA. THE TRADES ARE CARRYING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/ISOLATED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS THE BASIN...MOST
CONCENTRATED E OF 68W. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE SE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS.
HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE REGION.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE W OF
65W. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY IS THE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION JUST SW OF BERMUDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 66W-70W...AND
SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF ANDROS ISLAND. A MID TO UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 22N52W. THIS MAY BE GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 50W-56W...AND IS ALSO
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF TRINIDAD AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. OTHERWISE THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND MUCH OF THE E
ATLC WATERS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER S OF THE 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
40N41W. A WEAK COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG 32N18W 25N34W...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
WILLIS





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