[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ALL THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXISTS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W FROM THE HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR
BORDER SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NICARAGUA
TO THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N29W...4N34W 4N41W 6N50W 8N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 47W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM 2N TO 10N EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N65W
9N60W 10N57W 12N52W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED TO THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THIS TROUGH
IS 30N80W...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THREE AREAS OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. TWO AREAS COVER THE WATERS FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND THE OTHER ONE IS FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.  UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN
MOST AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WEST OF A PUERTO RICO-TO-GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA LINE. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY NEAR 16N87W AT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO A
TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N54W TO 13N59W TO THE
NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN AT LEAST 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF BELIZE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W
AND 89W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOME CURRENTS OF AIR ARE MOVING AROUND THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND OTHER CURRENTS
OF AIR FLOWING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ARE
MOVING OUT TO SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NICARAGUA TO THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA
BORDER...MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W FROM HONDURAS/
EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 28N70W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W
TO 24N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W ON THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SPREADING EASTWARD AND NOW ARE NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 70W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 21N54W
TO 13N59W TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N64W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE 21N54W 10N64W TROUGH.
A FAR-EASTERN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THIS
RIDGE...FROM 20N20W TO 17N29W TO 11N37W.

$$
MT


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