[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION TO
THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED JUST TO THE W OF AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 69W/70W S OF 11N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N23W 3N36W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA W OF 12W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 12W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF
S OF 25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID
LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS EARLIER THIS EVENING
BUT IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF WHICH
PRODUCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY.OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 16N85W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W AND EXTENDS N ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA TO NW COLOMBIA. AN
UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH SOME
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 29N70W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH CLIPS
THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N64W
PRODUCING LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 61W-67W. CUT-OFF NARROW UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N51W THROUGH AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 22N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W
INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES
MUCH THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 24N E OF 30W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR
WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 630W WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 4N42W N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N60W.

$$
WALLACE


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