[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN
19W AND 22W APPEAR TO BE WITH A SQUALL LINE AWAY FROM THE AFRICA
COAST. THIS SQUALL LINE IS SUPPOSED TO BE PRECEDING A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WAS PUT ON THE 03/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS ALONG
12W.  LET US WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THIS FEATURE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THIS
WAVE. NO STRONG INVERTED-V MOVEMENT IS INDICATED BY THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS  ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS
SEEN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 5N TO 10N
AROUND THE WAVE. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 49W AND 58W ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 22N52W TO
15N59W TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 14N...FROM NICARAGUA
TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. THAT
PRECIPITATION IS CLUSTERED MOSTLY FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
83W AND 86W FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N23W 4N27W 3N40W 3N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 7N
BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH TEXAS NEAR 31N95W
TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE TEXAS-T0-MEXICO TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WEST OF A PUERTO RICO-TO-GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA LINE. THE ACTUAL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THANKS TO
A TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N52W TO 15N59W TO
THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS WITHIN AT LEAST 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BELIZE. THESE AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION AND OTHER SMALLER AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...SOME CURRENTS OF AIR ARE MOVING
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...AND OTHER
CURRENTS OF AIR FLOWING OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE
ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS ARE MOVING OUT TO SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWESTER/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 29N68W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W
TO 27N64W TO 22N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 22N52W TO 15N59W
TO THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 10N65W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE 22N52W 10N65W TROUGH. A FAR-EASTERN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THIS RIDGE...FROM 20N20W
TO 17N29W TO 11N37W.

$$
MT




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