[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION
TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME INVERTED-V SIGNATURE HOWEVER
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 64W/65W S OF 8N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT.
WEAK WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-16N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N32W 8N47W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
13W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N E OF 18W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 48W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N ACROSS S FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND N MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21NE OF 93W.
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS N INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN/S MEXICO AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR
E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES
WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS W OF 80W AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
N OF 17N FROM 80W-84W. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC S OF
28N W OF 70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO
27N73W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE W ATLC HAS
RETREATED N. LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 27N65W TO 32N62W. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FROM OVER CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 75W-84W.
NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS BECOMING CUT-OFF
AND EXTENDS FROM 28N47W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N52W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W INCLUDING THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT ENCOMPASSES THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
IS CENTERED NEAR 16N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF
75W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N49W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 10N56W
TO 25N45W.

$$
WALLACE



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