[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH ITCZ CONVECTION
TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 63W S OF 8N
MOVING W 10 KT.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WEAK WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-15N
W OF 80W TO JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N28W 7N44W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
12W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-17W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 4N FROM
8W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN N OVER THE GULF
ALONG 84W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER W TEXAS AND INTO
MEXICO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE W
GULF N OF 23N W OF 95W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21NE OF 95W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF AND WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W AND EXTENDS N INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN/S MEXICO AND THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR
E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES
WITH SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS W OF 75W. MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 63W-79W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF E OF LINE FROM 25N67W TO 32N62W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 65W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS FROM 76W-80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NE FROM
25N67W TO BEYOND 32N56W SEPARATING THE W ATLC UPPER TROUGH FROM
A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
30N43W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N52W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 10N62W INCLUDING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH
IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 15N38W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W
WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N49W AND A 1024 MB HIGH TO
THE E NEAR 31N32W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF
55W WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N TO
23N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

$$
WALLACE




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