[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS HAVE SHOWN A CLEAR WESTWARD MOVING
AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W
MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WITH A POLEWARD
INFLECTION POINT IN THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-52W MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA ALONG 62W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A LOOP OF A DAYS
WORTH OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO ERN VENEZUELA.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT.  CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
78W-82W.  LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS REGION
AS WELL.  THE WAVE IS ALIGNED WELL WITH A UW-CIMMS SATELLITE
DERIVED 850 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N20W 3N30W 7N40W 7N50W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 24N.  SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
5-10 KT.  SOME WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER INLAND NE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 87W-94W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO..S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W.  SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 77W.  FLOW BENDS MORE SE
AND RELAXES IN THE NW PORTION AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE BASIN IS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED IN THE
GULF SECTION.  THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA
TO PANAMA HAS CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND.  ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF
JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 64W.  THE BASE
OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 64W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS
SW TO THE WRN BAHAMAS ALONG 27N70W 24N78W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN
62W-70W.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N52W.  ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N31W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 64W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENTERED NEAR 20N51W.  A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR
15N38W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA




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