[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST S OF
12N ALONG 12W AND IS PRECEDED BY A SQUALL LINE THAT IS ALONG
16.5W AT THE MOMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 7N17W. THE WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE
1800 UTC ANALYSIS. THERE MAY BE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THIS WAVE AXIS
PSN AFTER THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SAL IN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY N IN
THE VICINITY OF 35W WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE
CONVECTION.
THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE S OF 7N ALONG 35W ON THE 1800 UTC
ANALYSIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WAVE PSN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST OF S AMERICA.

A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED
TO THE S OF 9N ALONG 51.5W INDICATES THAT THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD
BE RELOCATED WESTWARD TO ALONG 55.5W AT 1200 UTC TODAY. THE WAVE
AXIS PASSED THROUGH CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA AROUND 1200 UTC
YESTERDAY WITH A GOOD SIGNATURE IN THE RAOB SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS
THERE STILL REMAINS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG OVER THE ATLC WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED BY LOW CLOUD MOTION IN
THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N ALONG 75W AT 12Z. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 12N78W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N45W 6N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IS OBSERVED NEAR 7N18W...NEAR 7N35W AND NEAR
8N56W ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND DESCRIBED ABOVE.
OTHERWISE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTES FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ALOFT THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING
FROM THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHICH IS THE
REMNANTS OF TS BARRY. DRY UPPER AIR IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS
AND ONLY ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS IS NOTED ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED TO THE S OF GRAND CAYMAN NEAR 17N81W
WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE SEA
ELSEWHERE W OF 70W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
TSTMS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N77W...AND ALONG THE E
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR 16N72W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER DRY NLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID ATLC UPPER
TROUGH AND CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 30N75W TO 23N80W AND IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH LIES
ALONG 32N74W 22N78W WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED TO THE N OF 25N
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPILLS S
COVERING THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 72W AND 62W...ABOVE A SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 32N55W RIDGING SW TO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC...BETWEEN 60W AND 40W...IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 31N44W TRAILING A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
SW TO NEAR 27N52W. A THIN BAND OF TSTMS WAS ENHANCED ALONG
22N52W 26N43W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE TO
BEYOND 32N36W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 26N29W ACCOMPANIED
BY DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W AND 20W.
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR THE CANARIES AT 27N18W. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 34N24W RIDGING SW TO E CARIBBEAN.

$$
NELSON



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