[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030455
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ESPECIALLY NOW THAT IS
MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ SO MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N25W 6N36W 8N60W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
NE OF A LINE FROM 2N9W TO 7N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-25W AND
90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 29W-35W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N W OF 43W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SE
GEORGIA. THE REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
FLOW. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF
84W TO OVER FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARRY
WHICH IS 996 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE TO ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO IN THE WAKE OF BARRY IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A
1012 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF HONDURAS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA NE TO E FLOW. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF BARRY
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N
BETWEEN 72W-77W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE
THE ENTIRE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BARRY ARE OVER THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N78W ALONG 27N75W TO BEYOND 32N75W AND OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N81W
TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 77W WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND
32N70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N45W
AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N49W TO 22N56W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1024 MB HIGH E
OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 11N42W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 18N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
THE AZORES SW TO NEAR 20N45W. FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS DOMINATES THE
ATLC E OF 60W WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.

$$
WALLACE




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