[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON T.D. BARRY BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 02/2100 UTC.  T.D. BARRY IS LOCATED NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30.4N 81.6W AT 2100 UTC...MOVING NNE AT
20 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
BARRY RAPIDLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB.  REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL SOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AS
SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM EASTERN GEORGIA UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF
VIRGINA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN
79W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 8N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR THE UPPER AIR TIME SECTION AT
CAYENNE IN THE FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET
A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS WAVE.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 48W-54W MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 6N30W 6N40W 7N50W.
AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH COTE D'IVOIRE THAT
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 5W-10W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SEE ABOVE CONCERNING T.D. BARRY CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA.  15 KT
NWLY FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA N OF 25N AND E OF 87W. ELSEWHERE...
A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
N OF 25N AND W OF 87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N AND E OF 94W.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO LIFT N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT T.D. BARRY TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ELY TRADES ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 75W...WHILE SLY
FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FEEDING INTO T.D. BARRY.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 78W-81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
71W-73W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-77W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO MOVE E TO
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 72W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING
IN THE WRN ATLC.  A 1024MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST E OF
BERMUDA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH BARRY TO SET UP A SIGNIFICANT
FETCH OF SE WINDS OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ALONG 53W N OF 12N. THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY BE PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
51W-56W BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT IS ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES OF
CIRRUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR 30N46W EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MOVE ENE TO NEAR 33N40W BY TOMORROW EVENING. THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB SFC HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA




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