[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
BARRY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS OF THE
02/1500 UTC NHC ADVISORY. THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR TAMPA BAY
AT 28.0N 82.5W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS BARRY GRADUALLY BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. BARRY
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH
CAROLINA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
BUOY 41012 JUST ENE OF ST. AUGUSTINE HAS BEEN REPORTING 30-40 KT
GUSTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SEAS NEAR 14 FT. LARGE
S TO SE WIND WAVES AND SWELL WILL SPREAD NORTH UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH SUN AND MON AS THE EXTRATROPICAL FORM OF BARRY
INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THUS...A
RIP CURRENT THREAT EXISTS...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 8N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR THE UPPER AIR TIME
SECTION AT CAYENNE IN THE FRENCH GUIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA S OF 10N AND W OF 40W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT...IF ANY...OF
THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE VERSUS THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N43W 6N51W 8N60W.
AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING THROUGH COTE DIVOIRE WHICH
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE. OTHER THAN
THAT...VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LINGERING BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
BARRY ARE OVER THE ERN GULF MAINLY E OF 87W. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS MOVING NE THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND WILL BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR SHORTLY. HOWEVER...AN INTERESTING BYPRODUCT OF
BARRY IS THE MODERATE E/SE SWELL SPREADING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF...IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE AT 10-11 SEC. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE
FROM E TO W OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES W AND SHOALS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS BUILDING INTO THE
NW GULF. SFC RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE
FAR WRN GULF AS UPPER TROUGHING EXTEND S THROUGH THE ERN
PORTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AND ADJACENT WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND BARRY AND TRADE FLOW IN THE ERN CARIB.
DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO GIVING THIS ACTIVITY ADDITIONAL LIFT.
SIMILAR TSTMS ARE OVER CENTRAL CUBA. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYER S TO
SW FLOW DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
OVERALL FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E
OF 75W. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CARIB DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 19N78W. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE A BIT LIGHTER SE FLOW DOMINATES NW PORTION AND
LIGHT/VARIABLES IN THE SW PORTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OVER THE WRN ATLC W OF 72W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN THE SHARP TROUGH IN THE ERN GOMEX AND RIDGING IN THE WRN
ATLC. A 1024MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST E OF BERMUDA. THIS IS
INTERACTING WITH BARRY TO SET UP A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF SE WINDS
OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FOR
MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG ALONG 53W N OF 12N. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-56W BUT OTHER THAN
THAT IT IS ONLY PRODUCING PATCHES OF CIRRUS. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
NEAR 29N47W EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ENE TO NEAR
31N43W BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB SFC
HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS IS AFFECTING THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 40W.

$$
WILLIS




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