[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 021443
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...SURFACE DATA AND INFORMATION FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS
BECOME ELONGATED AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TAMPA BAY. THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED
TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WIND SHEAR. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

NOTE: TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING WITHIN ABOUT
ONE HOUR...BARRY NEAR TAMPA BAY AND BARBARA NEAR THE BORDER OF
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/1500Z 28.0N  82.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  81.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 33.5N  79.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 36.0N  76.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 39.5N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA



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