[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM BARRY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24.5N 85.5W AT 01/2100 UTC...OR
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...MOVING NE AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CONVECTION IS NOTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF IS PROVIDING DECENT SWLY SHEAR TO THE STORM
ALONG WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE AND POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ALONG 43W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE NEAR
10N43W...PROVIDING ELY SHEAR ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
ATLC. THE WAVE IS THEREFORE POSITIONED UPSHEAR...TO THE E OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N19W 4N33W 6N43W 4N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM BARRY...DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE...IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE STORM IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG ROUGHLY
91W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA.
UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE TROUGH AND N OF THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT AND HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF
BARRY. HOWEVER...BARRY IS IN AN AREA OF SWLY SHEAR ALOFT E OF
THE EWD MOVING TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE TROPICAL
STORM. MOREOVER...WHILE AN ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOWS BARRY IN AREA OF FAVORABLE 80 DEGREE PLUS WATERS...A
COOLER WATERS WITH A 5 DEGREE SST GRADIENT IS EVIDENT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE
TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE ERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP ALONG WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH SAT...AND INTO COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SUN.
SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC AND LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR
MORE INFORMATION

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN...S OF
THE TROPICAL STORM AND ON THE EDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLC. THE RESULTANT CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
BASIN IS ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT FROM T.S. BARRY
IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE HONDURAN COAST. OBSERVATIONS
AROUND THE AREA SHOW FRESH SE TO S SFC FLOW ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER E...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS
PUSHING SWD INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE...CURTAILING CONVECTION THAT AREA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AS BARRY LIFTS
TO THE NE. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS
RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC SHIFTS FURTHER S AHEAD OF BARRY SHIFTING
INTO THE CAROLINAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE ATLC FROM 20N TO 30N.
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC...ALLOWING COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ANTILLES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ROUGHLY ALONG 55W. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 22N55W TO N OF PUERTO
RICO. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM 20N40W TO
30N30W...WITH A PARALLEL UPPER TROUGH TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB
SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE ERN ATLC. ELY TRADES PERSIST S OF
20N...WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH MAINTAINING GENERALLY
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS. AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS
EVIDENT OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION. THE MAIN CHANGE EXPECTED IS THE EMERGENCE
OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY OFF THE CAROLINAS
SAT...WITH WINDS OVER THE WRN ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
AND VEERING S. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER TROP N ATLC AS THE
WRN ATLC HIGH SHIFTS SE AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. SEE ATLC HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE MARINE FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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