[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER
OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...
6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE NOAA SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST IS
PROJECTING 13 TO 17 NAMED STORMS...7 TO 10 HURRICANES...AND 3 TO 5
MAJOR HURRICANES DURING 2007.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2007 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA                          LORENZO
BARRY                           MELISSA
CHANTAL        SHAN TAHL-       NOEL
DEAN                            OLGA
ERIN           AIR- IN          PABLO           PA- BLOW
FELIX          FEEL- IX         REBEKAH
GABRIELLE      GA BREE EL-      SEBASTIEN       SAY BAS- TYAN
HUMBERTO       OOM BAIR- TO     TANYA           TAHN- YA
INGRID                          VAN
JERRY                           WENDY
KAREN


THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A
DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME.  IT
BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG OR FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS.  THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF TEXT PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT
INTRODUCED IN 2006...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE
ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR
TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL ADVISORY PACKAGES INCLUDE A SET
OF GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS...INCLUDING WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICS
THAT WERE ALSO INTRODUCED IN 2006.

AN ADDITIONAL TEXT PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS
FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO NOTIFY USERS OF CHANGES THAT OTHER COUNTRIES
MAKE TO THEIR WATCHES OR WARNINGS.  IT IS ALSO SOMETIMES ISSUED TO
ALERT USERS THAT A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE IS ABOUT TO BE
RELEASED.  TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY
TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADERS MIATCUAT1-5.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.

THE 2007 SEASON GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START WHEN SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA FORMED DURING MAY.  ANDREA ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD FORMED OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS ON 6 MAY...AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANDREA BECAME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ON 9 MAY.   NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CAUSED ANDREA TO WEAKEN
BELOW STORM STRENGTH ON 10 MAY AND TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
ON 11 MAY. THE REMNANT LOW LATER BECAME ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON 14
MAY.

ANDREA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NO DIRECT DEATHS...ALTHOUGH 5 PEOPLE
DROWNED AS A RESULT OF THE PRECURSOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  BEACH
EROSION IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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