[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES NNW OF BERMUDA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NNE OR NE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N68W E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N63W TO 39N67W.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

A BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 44W-53W IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES E OF THE S
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 28W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM
25W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC THAT IS ALONG 48W/49W IS IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS TILTED FROM 24N66W ALONG
15N68W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N69W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
62W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN BUT NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 13N25W 8N32W 12N42W 8N53W
7N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W
AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 9N-14N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
11N19W 7N29W 8N36W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W DOMINATING THE GULF N OF 22N PRODUCING A BROAD BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ACROSS S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI THE OVER N
LOUISIANA TO OKLAHOMA. THIS IS GIVING THE E GULF ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 24N E OF 87W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1015 MB HIGH OVER W CUBA
NEAR 23N82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W NW TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
8N76W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA MOVING W OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR THE AREA W OF BERMUDA. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N72W GIVING THE
ENTIRE W ATLC SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 72W. BENIGN UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. DRY STABLE AIR E OF 60W AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
REGION DOMINATE THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
WALLACE


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