[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
 A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED W OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 36N72W TO 3367W TO 30N63W.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 12 KT.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-36N BETWEEN
64W-67W...AND FROM 35N-37N BETWEEN 68W-70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 28W S OF 19N MOVING W AT
10 KT.  A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 27W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 48W S OF 19N MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT.  AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 21N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.  BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED
FROM JUST N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W-73W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 14N25W 9N35W 11N43W 6N56W.
EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 25N.  LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
GULF FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN GULF MOSTLY N OF 24N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 77W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ELY FLOW
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE
WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 83W.  EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 74W-78W.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N52W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N70W
25N80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 75W.  A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 25N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 63W-70W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 30N47W.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
26N23W.

$$
FORMOSA






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