[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292303
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 33N71W ALONG 30N71W TO 27N74W.
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM 24N72W TO 33N67W AND COULD MOVE OVER BERMUDA LATER
TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY RELOCATED TO
THE E BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
AND IS TILTED ALONG 23W/24W S OF 19W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA
FROM 19W-29W. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 48W/49W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK WAVE COVERING A NARROW AREA FROM
46W-51W. ANY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TILTED FROM 20N60W
ALONG 13N62W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N61W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE
AREA FROM 56W-65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES BUT NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS S MEXICO INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 92W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WELL DEFINED
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER S
MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 10N27W 7N41W 9N50W 8N56W
9N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180/200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 40W-55W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING N ACROSS THE LOWER
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE DESERT SW GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA AND TO THE COAST OF
TEXAS. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST TO SW LOUISIANA GIVING THE GULF W OF 87W NW UPPER
FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SE US TO OVER FLORIDA
TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF E OF
87W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION S OF 27N. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A
1015 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W.

CARIBBEAN...
THE NE UPPER FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W GENERATING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVER CUBA TO 20N W OF 81W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W NW TO
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NEAR 14N84W COVERING THE THE
REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR
9N78W TO OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH COUPLED WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA MOVING
W OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE SE US ACROSS
FLORIDA TO CUBA EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 71W. AN UPPER HIGH
IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE NE
OVER BERMUDA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THIS IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. BENIGN UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC
FROM 30W-60W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR
NEAR 30N E OT 30W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. MORE
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ATLC E OF 30W AND IS BEING DRAWN BACK TO
THE COAST OF AFRICA BY THE UPPER RIDGE. DRY STABLE AIR E OF 60W
AND A SURFACE RIDGE E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
33N52W DOMINATE THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
WALLACE



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