[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 32N71W TO 28N72W 25N74W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 67W-71W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 26W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING.  A NEW SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST HAS BEEN INFUSED INTO THE
WAVE EXTENDING E OF 35W.  A STRONG MONSOONAL TROUGH IS NOTED S
OF THE ITCZ ENHANCING THE WAVE.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
25W-29W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
16W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 47W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS PLACED ON THE APEX OF THE INVERTED-V
LARGE SCALE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W MOVING W 10-15
KT.  LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N30W 10N50W 10N60W.  OTHER
THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 29W-40W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
NEAR 28N89W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF.  LIGHT SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR WRN GULF W OF 94W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF
CENTERED NEAR 28N88W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 85W-90W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 30N79W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FLORIDA FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 81W-83W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER IS OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N75W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.  SEE ABOVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N51W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 30N79W.  ANOTHER WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FURTHER E OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 33N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 57W-61W DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 25N50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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