[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N71W TO 23N74W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NNE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 25N-30N E OF
TROUGH TO 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC FROM 4N-18N ALONG 24W MOVING W
10-15 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-18N ALONG 44W MOVING W 10 KT. MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N
ALONG 88W MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 9N35W 10N45W 11N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS FROM 15W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 35W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF
OF MEXICO TO LOUISIANA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVES MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE AREA FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W OTHERWISE ONLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN
AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE NICARAGUA NE
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH E OF ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DRY STABLE AIR WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR
24N66W TO 31N66W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH DISCUSSED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A WELL-DEFINED
ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N63W AND IS DRIFTING NE. TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR 25N58W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN ATLC WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR N OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 26N42W.

$$
DGS




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net