[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT.  A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA WITH GOOD LOW AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING.  A NEW
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST HAS BEEN INFUSED INTO THE WAVE EXTENDING
E OF 30W.  A STRONG MONSOONAL TROUGH IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ
ENHANCING THE WAVE.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 18W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W
10 KT.  THE WAVE HAS A SMALL EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG
THE ITCZ NEAR 10N38W.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN
32W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 55W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS PLACED ON THE APEX OF THE LARGE INVERTED-V
LARGE SCALE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.  LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC TURNING
IS NOTED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 11N45W 8N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N87W.  LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF.  LIGHT
SLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 90W.  ON SIGNIFICANT
NOTE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN INLAND OVER TEXAS
NEAR 32N105W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
93W-97W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND OVER W GEORGIA NEAR
33N85W  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE NE GULF FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 86W-91W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 21N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE ERN CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS
OF N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N72W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  EXPECT
CONVECTION WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 30N72W 23N75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 70W-72W...AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
76W-80W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN
70W-75W.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N42W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 30N62W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 59W-62W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
25N45W.

$$
FORMOSA




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