[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 18W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING COVERING AN
AREA ABOUT 4 DEG EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THE S END OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 37W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM S OF 16N ALONG 51W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM E FROM 12N-14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN A OF 19N ALONG
81W/82W MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. AN AREA OF DISSIPATING CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE S OF 12N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N19W 11N35W 12N45W 10N52W 8N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS FROM
23W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM N OF AXIS FROM 41W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CIRCULATION NE TO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...COMBINED WITH AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 87W-90W WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF COVERED BY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION N OF
AROUND 24N. A 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
29N86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER NE FLOW AROUND RIDGING DOMINATES THE NW PORTION. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER TO NEAR HAITI. A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 13N 73W. WHILE TROUGHING AND DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER COAST OF COLOMBIA RELATED TO
A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 9N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
RATHER QUIET.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE U.S. WITH SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 30N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. AN ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST N OF
ANDROS ISLAND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NE TO 31N71W. DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N63W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM
31N58W TO 24N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-67W. LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING AND DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE E ATLC. A
1022 MB SFC HIGH IS NEAR 32N36W ALSO DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL
ATLC. FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE FOUND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
DGS





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