[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE SFC MAP AT 00Z ALONG 17W S OF 17N
ESTIMATED TO MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THERE ARE A FEW INDICATORS
WHICH SUPPORT THIS FEATURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING COVERING AN AREA
ABOUT 4 DEG EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SFC OBS OVER AFRICA ARE
REPORTING A 1-2 MB DROP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND
THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS THE FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SE IN THE
700-925 MB LAYER ON THE 00Z SOUNDING. WITH THAT SAID...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS VERY MINIMAL AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 36W SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 11N-12N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N-16N ALONG 49W/50W IS ADJUSTED W DO TO
SATELLITE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W/81W S
OF 18N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 12N20W 11N27W 13N35W 11N40W 13N47W 8N59W.
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS
FROM 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL
MEXICO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CIRCULATION NE TO THE TEXAS
LOUISIANA BORDER...COMBINED WITH AND UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCING TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
96W-101W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH MAINLY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION N OF AROUND
24N. A COUPLE OF 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERS ARE LOCATED
NEAR 28N90W AND 29N84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER NE FLOW AROUND RIDGING DOMINATES THE NW PORTION. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM COSTA RICA TO NEAR HAITI.
A WEAK UPPER HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N 73W.
WHILE TROUGHING AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA RELATED TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 9N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER QUIET.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE U.S. WITH SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 31N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. EARLIER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING N OF 22N W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NE TO 31N72W. DOWNSTREAM
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N63W WITH SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 31N58W TO 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-67W.
LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE E ATLC. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH IS NEAR 34N32W ALSO DOMINATES THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC. FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE
FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.

$$
DGS


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