[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 27W-34W WITH
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ROTATION. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 16N42W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 11N45W TO 5N45W MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 41W-49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
44W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD
WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
70W-80W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR WITH
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 71W-73W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 14N28W 11N33W 12N42W 9N48W
7N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N E OF 17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 200 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 7N W OF 8W AND WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 32W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 23N95W
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS FEEDING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER HIGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 89W. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ARE BEGINNING
TO WIND DOWN WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING S OF 27N FROM 80W-84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATES THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 76W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 78W TO OVER CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W CREATING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
ELONGATED LOW EXTENDING FROM 15N73W TO 12N82W. DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
12N FROM PANAMA TO COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 72W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N W OF
78W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH 32N58W SW
TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO 26N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 54W-60W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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