[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING
THE AREA FROM 34W-45W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 12N FROM 40W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE
AREA FROM 50W-65W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25
KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE
AREA FROM 80W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-21N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N24W 8N35W 10N52W 9N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
10N FROM 14W-17W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 11N FROM 27W-31W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N E OF
35W TO TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC
TO THE N GULF COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING S OVER
TEXAS. REMNANT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM NE MEXICO N OF 24N TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W
CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS ENHANCING
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BETWEEN 90W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W DOMINATING
THE AREA W OF 71W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
BETWEEN 76W-83W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM OVER VENEZUELA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST
TO THE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
W CUBA/FLORIDA STRAITS NE TO 32N69W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W
GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 62W. LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 30N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N FROM
46W-60W AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN
50W-56W. BENIGN UPPER LEVEL HIGH/TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE





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