[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250446
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWW5 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING
THE AREA FROM 32W-43W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE
AREA FROM 48W-62W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25
KT. LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE
AREA FROM 78W-89W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 78W-88W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND IS
ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 97W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION ARE
OVER MEXICO AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION...REFER TO TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATWDEP FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N28W 10N40W 9N62W.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-14N BETWEEN 22W-34W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR W ATLC
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
LOUISIANA SW TO MEXICO JUST S OF TAMPICO. A 1012 MB LOW REMAINS
OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF FROM 81W-84W AS WELL AS
SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 23N FROM 88W-94W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER
SHOWER FREE TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 70W AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
W ATLC AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 72W-82W. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 29N W OF 76W WITH A WEAKENING ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N76W TO NE FLORIDA. THE
LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
W CUBA NE TO 32N70W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 66W GIVING THE AREA
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
24N W OF 68W. LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N53W COVERING THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 45W-66W. BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH/TROUGH WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE




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