[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 22N MOVING W 20-25 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA
FROM 35W-55W. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED EXTENDING FROM
67W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE S HISPANIOLA AND
SE CUBA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS DISTORTED DUE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH TO THE E OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 23N TO OVER THE
YUCATAN BETWEEN 86W-93W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 11N28W 10N45W 5N57W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-42W AND FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US AND THE FAR NW ATLC
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SE
LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER SE
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W SE TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA JUST S OF TAMPA
AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING SW  TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. THE IS AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGH INT HE W
ATLC. LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF
85W TO OVER FLORIDA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN
THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W DOMINATING THE AREA AND EXTENDING
RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION THE UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-14N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 26N W OF 74W WITH A ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N75W OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NE TO 33N62W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W GIVING THE AREA SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N52W COVERING THE
AREA N OF 17N FROM 48W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E
OF 30W EXTENDING E/W ALONG 23W. A SURFACE RIDGE WITH DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH AND A
1031 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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