[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE ATLC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W MOVING W 20-25 KT.
THE WAVE EXHIBITS A VERY LARGE INVERTED V SHAPE.  A DENSE LAYER
OF SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE AXIS.  DEEP
CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AND IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-74W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT.  LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 86W-92W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N40W 6N55W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 14W-17W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NEAR 29N89W.   A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM
THE LOW TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 27N93W 29N96W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED.  A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE LOW TO FLORIDA ALONG 29N85W 28N80W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 80W-89W.  ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 86W-91W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN
80W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  EXPECT THE FRONTS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE E GULF
E OF 90W.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
CONVECTION.  SEE ABOVE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS SLACKENED THUS TRADEWINDS HAVE LIGHTENED.
15-20 KT WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA HOWEVER.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 76W-86W.  ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 77W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N81W.  EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION FROM THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG
30N76W 28N77W 28N80W.  CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 72W-75W... AND
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 71W-75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 79W-80W.  ONE
DOMINATE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N46N
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N52W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 24N38W.  ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21N22W.

$$
FORMOSA


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