[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. THE
SURFACE LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
IS OBSERVED COVERING THE AREA FROM 28W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ON THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF 8N FROM
31W-35W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED EXTENDING
FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 57W-73W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W S OF 21N MOVING W
15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED MOVING OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COVER THE AREA N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA W OF
82W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 10N26W 11N35W 8N41W 8N52W
7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-30W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 45W-49W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N11W TO 12N21W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE NW ATLC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 90W WITH A RE-ENFORCING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES FORCING AIR S OVER THE NW
GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
IS BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH
A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE N
GULF COAST NEAR 29N88W ALONG 27N92W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME NEAR STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM
THE 1013 MB LOW ALONG 26N92W TO THE COAST JUST S BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. SMALL WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. ALL
THIS IS KEEPING THE GULF RATHER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF  E OF
92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER HIGH IS
ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER
EASTERLY FLOW AND A SECOND STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE
SECOND UPPER HIGH IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND IN ADDITION IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75
NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO INLAND OVER NE NICARAGUA
NEAR 15N84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W WITH A ASSOCIATED NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N72W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA IS
NEAR 19N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO 31N64W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 58W GIVING THE AREA FROM 22N TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 73W-78W SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LOW THAT IS N OF BERMUDA IS ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GIVE A SMALL
AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 60W-69W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 25N52W COVERING THE AREA FROM 42W-58W WITH A
SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 31N45W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E
OF 40W EXTENDING E/W ALONG 22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N
OF THE REGION PRODUCING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE





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