[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N WITH A 1010MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED WITH A SMALL SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED EXTENDING
FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 57W-71W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N MOVING W 15
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED
MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COVER THE
AREA W OF 80W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 13N28W 7N41W 9N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N E OF
21W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE NW ATLC INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N E OF 90W WITH A RE-ENFORCING UPPER HIGH
OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES FORCING DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE NW GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A
SMALL 1012 MB LOW IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH A SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE N GULF
COAST NEAR 29N88W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON. A WEAK UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. ALL THIS IS KEEPING THE GULF
RATHER ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E GULF WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF 26N AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF
HISPANIOLA IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER EASTERLY FLOW AND A
STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N79W DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER HIGH IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF E CUBA FROM 77W-80W. OTHERWISE THERE IS
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N73W ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE UPPER HIGH N
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W
OF 55W GIVING THE FAR W ATLC SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 72W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LOW JUST N
OF BERMUDA IS INTERACTING WITH THE SAME UPPER HIGH TO GIVE A
SMALL AREA SCATTERED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 60W-69W. VERY LARGE UPPER LOW COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N45W AND COVERS THE
AREA FROM 31W-55W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W
EXTENDING E/W ALONG 22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA.

$$
WALLACE


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