[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH
CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD AREA. A 1011 MB SFC LOW HAS BE
ADDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE ITCZ FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W/62W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 59W-66W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD
AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 21N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. A LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
79W-83W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
MONDAY MORNING.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 12N20W 10N30W 8N50W 11N58W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB SFC LOW IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST AND INTO LOUISIANA. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS 80-100 NM INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR 25N87W. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N95W. THIS TROUGH IS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
INLAND OVER NW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE FAR WEST
GULF. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
THROUGH TUE PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES
OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM A 1012 MB
LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF
JAMAICA IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES...MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB SFC LOW
CENTERED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 34N73W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N65W IS GENERATING A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N61W SW
TO 24N71W. TWO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EXIST BELOW THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE FIRST IS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...AND THE
SECOND IS AT THE FAR SOUTH END NEAR 25N70W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 24N-27N AND 67W-71W
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
1034 MB SFC HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 39N42W. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A AREA OF 20 TO 25
KT NELY WINDS FROM 20N TO 30N EAST OF 45W.


$$
WADDINGTON


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